1 NATO’s Policy on the Protection of Civilians states: “Protection of Civilians (persons, objects and services) includes all efforts taken to avoid, minimize and mitigate the negative effects that might arise from NATO and NATO-led military operations on the civilian population and, when applicable, to protect civilians from conflict-related physical violence or threats of physical violence by other actors, including through the establishment of a safe and secure environment.” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “NATO Policy for the Protection of Civilians,” (Warsaw: June 2016). This paper was prepared by Cordillera Applications Group (Cordillera) to support the Stimson Center’s efforts to understand the impact of increased urban conflict on the protection of civilians.
Additionally, the increasing use of future technologies such as robotic and autonomous systems, AI, hypersonic weapons and mass precision fires will also have a devastating effect on the population and create ethical pressure on the military to provide protection. These effects will be delivered from across the multi-domains of land, air, maritime, space and the cyber/electro-magnetic spectrum and will create both military and civilian dilemmas.
#SHALLOW SPACE INSURGENCY HOW TO#
Given that operations will take place in the urban environment it is critical that military forces are prepared to or understand how to protect the civilian population from kinetic and non-kinetic effects. Consequently, it is not a matter of ‘if’, but ‘when’ military forces will be involved in urban operations from humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to protracted combat including peer/near-peer conflict. The urban environment has been the predominant site for modern warfare and is the chosen battleground for insurgents and anti-government forces, while cities have been at the centre of conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Libya, Yemen and Georgia. The influence on and of a population lies close to the centre of gravity of any conflict or crisis past, present or future. Conflict and crisis in its simplest form is about people, whether through the duty of a state to protect its population, or the influence that a population exerts on a state. Cities are centres of strategic and political power, with significant influence beyond their geographical space. More than half the world’s population already lives in cities and the United Nations estimates 1 that urban areas worldwide will grow from 4.2 billion (55% of the world population) in 2018 to 6.7 billion (68% of the world population) by 2050.
This article summaries Cordillera Applications Group’s views on where future conflict will take place, the impact of technology and the requirement to protect civilians.